10 February 2000 Two observations on late developments (Middle East / US Presidential Election Campaign)

Syria: The stalemate on all tracks is more complicated than it appears. Seems to be doing its best to convince everyone concerned that it is truly a miserable partner for peace. It is also trying to save face (as will be discussed below). Egypt behaves not much better and there is little change in public atmosphere to reflect the changes in Israel over the past half year. At this rate, Syria will get no economic assistance from the US, more important in the long term than some rocks on the Golan. The Israeli public is becoming convinced that it can live for another 30 years without peace with Syria. The fact that Egypt’s peace with Israel is so cold and tenuous no matter what the Israelis do works in favor of making no deal with Syria. We are approaching a point where the calculus may be drawn that it is preferable to wait for Bashar or whoever takes over rather than to set terms with Hafez Assad knowing that with Hafez everything will be hostile no mater what. Syria had better take notice; it is overplaying its hand, squandering its opportunity and the warning signs are becoming apparent. Assad will probably try and do the deal himself; his advisors tell him that his son is not ready for prime time in the diplomatic arena. Meanwhile, the lights will be out in Beirut for another few months because the Hizbullah is not being restrained by the Syrians who are trying to get through them what they can’t at the table. Some major Hizbullah successes, a failure to successfully retaliate against their leaders, a severe hit to South Lebanese Army morale and too many gory TV pictures in Israel forced Barak’s hands. So the Lebanese will suffer. There may also be complications on the Palestinian track. I don’t know what the complications are at this point but I will be having a meeting about this in the next 2 weeks to clarify the regional situation. Overall, there is a sense that Barak is groveling before Syria and toying with Arafat; perhaps the styles ought to be reversed. Trust and partnership must become the name of the game between the Israelis and the Palestinians who live on top of each other; the Syrians can be left to their own devices and a state of non-belligerency is enough for now. The other side of the story: Assad was embarrassed and ridiculed when Barak’s office leaked the draft treaty showing Syrian concessions without Israeli concessions. The Palestinians had been led to believe they would get some territories near Jerusalem in the next round but felt taken when Barak got cold feet on this and decided it would be better to hold off on this controversial concession till the Israelis could see more fruits from the peace process. One thing for sure: Barak is running his own show and no one knows what is on his mind. If he fails, he will have no allies in Israel. This is the danger point I discussed a year ago; he is an autocrat who takes no advice. The next prime minister of Israel should be a person who is more consultative; two autocrats in a row plus an arrogant president have made the public weary of leaders bred from the military and elites who think they know better.

Bush/McCain: It has been taken as gospel that South Carolina is Bush territory because South Carolina has been seen to be very conservative in its Republican ranks. Closer inspection, now that people are looking at this, shows this is not necessarily true. Population shifts over the last decade and the cancellation of the Democratic caucus in that state mean that independent voters now count for much in that state and can register to vote in the Republican primary. That’s how McCain won in New Hampshire. There are also more armed services veterans in South Carolina than in any other state and they tend to like McCain, the war hero. Also, the governor is a Democrat and has every interest in weakening Bush. It is conceivable that McCain could draw a significant amount of voters into the Republican primary and beat Bush in South Carolina. This could be enough to scare the Republican establishment and trigger an avalanche as we move into the next round of primaries. Michigan is another South Carolina waiting to happen.

This is important because in the national vote a Democrat must look like a Republican to win and a Republican must look almost like a Democrat or else he will lose the female votes. The swing voters prefer McCain’s message to Bush even though the party rank and file settles on Bush (with not much confidence in him at all) but prefers someone even further to the right. Bush is being forced to go on the record with right-wing positions and get mean to get past the primaries that will damage him in the general elections. It may be that McCain, who is establishing his policy positions in a solid manner, is better to beat Gore, seen as liberal but at least beginning to appear lifelike if not a bit slick himself. People come out of Bush rallies and have no idea why they should support him or if he is for real; McCain at least has people feeling they know what he stands for. Unless the Republican party machinery can figure out how to knock out McCain in the next 2 weeks and establish Bush as a person with a message and the ability to be president, it may become necessary to revise estimates in the upcoming presidential election race. Consider that McCain, who never appeared or spent any money in Delaware, got 25% of the vote this week, while Steve Forbes who worked hard there and spent heavily, got only 20%. I personally am suspicious of McCain; anyone who has been in the Senate for 20 years who has few friends in Arizona, the Senate or in the Republican party is a guy who will be a loner as president and history shows such people to be ineffectual. He has good ideas in the foreign policy sphere but is clueless on domestic policy and it is surprising how a man could be in the Senate for 20 years and be so clueless. He is also a bit holier than thou on this campaign reform thing, having been a major political power broker himself but I can relate to an insider picking up the shovel and insisting that he hates the system and knows how to clean it up. However, since the president is generally only really important on the foreign side, this may not matter. There is also a major constituency in this country for putting up presidents who conflict with congress so that nothing radical will ever get done in Washington. Stay tuned…I may have reason to take McCain seriously since I really detest both Bush and Gore.

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