I sat with a good friend from Shanghai who has good insights into China and the world. These are his opinions as to what to expect. I would tend to think with 80% probability that these opinions represent a fair cross-section of the elite of the PRC.
1. Tibet & Taiwan — China to economically dominate and, as it becomes more capitalist on the mainland, will be viewed as less threatening over time. Problem will solve itself in 10-20 years.
2. North Korea — Will wave nuclear blackmail over everyone’s head but won’t use it. They are rational and know if they use it, they exist no longer. China must deal with them as a neighbor and having Chinese troops in Korea but they deal gingerly; the Koreans visited a naval yard and demanded a submarine which they got; next time they visited all the stuff was hidden away.
3. Democracy and US Relations — OK to disagree with government as long as you don’t appear to be a threat. China wants control for next 2 years to get over economic hump but combination of infrastructure projects coming on line and shakeouts from mass firings still to come should bring future prosperity and regional superpowerhood for China. They fear unemployment rate above 10% which could bring people into the streets. China next generation likes US democratic element which brings more people into the decisionmaking process (apart from 7 people running a country) but doesn’t like the triangulation of power in Washington which prevents the country from speaking with one voice to the outside world. Prefers about 100-200 people consenting to government policy than the 535 people we have. Also likes the US protection of minority interests — the Chinese idea is that the minority must sacrifice for the will of the majority. The US separation of powers situation (ie: congress v. executive) can be played to outsider’s advantage and China is doing it. Catching up to Taiwan in this regard and now playing the money game, but if it wants to buy a president it can do so with $50 billion, not $300,000. The spy alleged to be the spy is small-fry in the big picture. The big spy is still loose. Overall, China is not hostile to foreign ideas and today is hardly communist; it will continue to be more capitalist in the next 10-20 years and probably more democratic as well but the socialist/communist idea which puts the state before the individual is an important idea for China to retain since there are so many different nationalities within the country that would be at each other’s throats if the country moved toward an autonomous/every man for himself ideology. I tend to think that in any event the Asian mindset favors order and that the average person will sacrifice some amounts of freedom in the interest of maintaining order if they perceive it will help all live a better life.
