Time to reassess assumptions.
I’ve eaten crow and admitted that we now have learned that Assad has neither the guts nor the desire to make peace with Israel, even if he’s given essentially what he asked for. Who would have thought that a rational man would turn down all those concessions — more than that he can’t get from Israel, as long as the peace he promises looks like an enema. We can conclude that his son Bashar must be so weak inside Syria that Assad Sr. is afraid to rock the boat, even if it means Bashar will never be able to agree to terms his father rejected and stand safely. The Israelis have kept lines open to Rifaat Assad and I now tend to believe that Bashar will not be taking over Syria and that if he does, he won’t last 2 years. Certainly the Lebanese think he’s a pushover. The Alawites are not backing him strongly and he himself does not seem eager. Just as Dan Meridor had to be counted out this year for lack of ambition.
When the Israelis pull out of Lebanon Assad will have to decide if he wants to try and draw the Israelis in. He risks a strike inside Syrian territory and the exposure of how weak his army is. A good “hit” by Israel could unravel his government and this might not be the worst thing. Barak has moral capital to do what he wants — the Israelis are convinced it is Syria’s fault that there is no deal and what follows follows. Barak and Israel are lovers scorned and the Israelis will wait for the next leader of Syria who will at least offer the prospect of continuity. Meanwhile, I would leave Lebanon for the summer as it will not be pretty. I have postponed visiting the area.
The Palestinian track offers hidden pleasures. Now that Israel is not giving up the whole Golan in the near future, Arafat can settle for less than 100% without looking like a moron. It is rather clear the two sides can’t agree to everything, so they will agree to whatever they can, declare a state (the better to keep the Palestinians honest and a “responsible party” — meaning a target for retaliation), and keep negotiating forever as to the rest. This is now consensus within Israel.
Barak survives because there is no opposition figure yet. He can play Shas and Likud off each other for at least the next 6 months. The Russians will again be the decisive vote that throws him out if he does not move this year to give them goodies. He also needs to give the Arabs a reason to feel included in the system since they voted for him and gave him crucial support at a delicate time. Barak is not Bibi — Bibi was a liar. Barak is an arrogant loner like Rabin was but he is not a liar. This means he will be unpopular and will lose an election but likely last out his term unless he really stumbles. Simply not making peace or delivering wonderful economic statistics is not enough to drive him out under the new system of direct elections. The next election will be over economics — as the last one was — and that’s where Barak is more urgently failing to deliver, not so much because of failed policies but due to perceived lack of attention and empathy and an inability to work with his coalition partners to delegate authority and achieve a sense of shared mission or consensus. This was the danger I originally saw in Barak; it will become primary to his failure once the peace track becomes secondary later this year unless Barak changes his approach, and that will go against his nature.
This region still surprises — a bullet here, an explosion there — and again we will have to reassess positions. Too bad Syria was that decrepit that it could not hope to sign a peace deal, even with the promise of US support, and survive. This is very inconvenient for Barak. His future is problematic — peace and normalization is the pillar for economic revitalization and his ticket to being able to tackle the domestic social issues that are in their own way even more intractable than the Arab-Israeli issues. Fortunately, there is prospect of hope on the domestic front, precisely because there is a sense that this government is not about to disappear in the short term.
Passover Message…The State of Israel and American Jewry
This past Sunday the New York Times business section had on its front page the story “Israel: A Land of Milk and Money.” This year more foreign investment capital went into Israel than foreign economic aid. The Amidex 35 index of Israeli stocks listed on Nasdaq has outperformed Nasdaq for the past 16 months. The country’s courts and ministries are moving toward a phase of normalcy where Arabs are treated more as equals than as security risks. The New York Times, on its front page a week ago, recited a litany of well over a dozen significant developments that have occurred during the past year that overall represent a revolution in the way Israelis deal with Arabs. The Syrian track may be on hold a few years but it is no big deal. The solution to the Palestinian track is now within the national consensus and by year’s end we will be past this issue to some degree. Millennia old grudges with the Vatican are being reconciled.
Israel is finally moving to Stage 2. It is a light unto nations and practicing what it preaches. No more having to excuse itself because it lives in a dangerous neighborhood. It is still a dangerous neighborhood but Israel is strong enough that it can adhere to a biblical standard of behavior and survive. It no longer begs for existential acceptance — the Pope and the head of China seek Israel out because it suits their needs. Israel is a wealthy, vibrant and confident country that is the envy of its neighbors, both politically and economically. It is becoming the lean, mean fighting machine I hoped it would be.
The two remaining challenges: First: To reach social consensus or at least a truce within the Jewish community. If Israelis can get along better, American Jews will regain their emotional bond with Israel. If Israelis remain locked in culture war between secular and religious, American Jews will continue to increasingly view Israel as an intolerant, alien and socially undemocratic state. Recent developments indicate that Rabbi Melchior is succeeding from his pivotal perch in bridging the gap with innovative compromises that people might agree to. Compromise is vital — one million Russians who don’t want to promise to be more catholic than the pope in order to be converted to Judaism cannot be swept aside lest they gang up and really throw out the clergy wholesale which someday they just might do. The second is to reform the economy — to make Israel a place people want to live and work. Again, there are indications that meaningful reforms will be made or else all these Israeli companies will keep migrating their operations and talent to the U.S.
The outlook is moderately good — at home and abroad. There is a sense that positive incremental changes will be made and that there is a promising future. In the U.S, there is a new generation of leadership with ideas, vision and money. Not necessarily interested in religion or Israel, but that could change. At least they exist and I am getting an idea of who and where they are. In the coming years, their efforts will become more visible. The prospects for collaboration with others (nationalities, races and religions) is also increasingly good. We see the light at the end of the bridge to the 21st century. We are not just passing over this Passover, but passing INTO what I pray will be a good time in history.
