Ivan’s Opinion re Middle East Situation — 6 March 2000

This article is distinguished from other articles in that it is not solely my analysis or prediction but more or less my opinion.

I think the Israelis should get out of Lebanon and off the Golan, should give the Palestinians pretty much what they are asking for, including their capital in Abu-Dis with East Jerusalem becoming a borough of the capital of the Palestinian State. A thinner and leaner fighting machine of a country will be the result — I have always been for such downsizing and have called for cantonization with the Palestinians in the Territories since the late 1980’s.

Who would have thought a half-year ago that the cabinet vote to get out of Lebanon would be unanimous when we were all being told how important it was? Also, we were told for years that the Israelis did not agree to get off the Golan and that its water was crucial. Fahgetaboutit, as they say in New Yawk. Israel has essentially lost all credibility by making claims about what is necessary for its security while it already conceded just about everything to the Arabs without telling the Jews about it. All news that comes out only serves to confirm concessions already given, some by Barak and some by predecessors. Religious arguments about the Land of Israel are inconclusive; there are clearly differences of opinion even among reputable Orthodox rabbis and I have no doubt that the opinion of Rabbi Yosef of the pivotal Shas party is holding out for the best deal possible for Shas.

I don’t have a sense that the country needs this territory for its security; the country is large enough as it is (much of Israel proper is still undeveloped) and, most important, if the country doesn’t make these concessions and there is a war, half the army won’t be around to fight the next war because they will not believe the war is necessary. That last point is what brought Rabin to the table in the first place. I know that East Jerusalem is not a place for a Jew to go (except for the Jewish quarter of the old city), and Jews are not even supposed to go to the Temple Mount according to their own religious law until the Messiah comes. When it comes, then we’ll deal with it and presumably it will be such a big deal to the whole world that nobody will argue with it.

As stated in other writings, I believe that existential Risk and Threat will come from free agents, not from the states bordering the country or from the Palestinian entity. So far, everything I see from all border states and the Palestinians confirms this; Palestinians are attacking from Israel proper and areas under Israeli control but not from places under Palestinian control. There are no attacks from people entering Israel with legal work permits. Hizbullah in Lebanon and Syria on the Golan also follow rules; there is a method to all this madness and it has been less than honest for the Israelis to claim that Hizbullah was violating understandings in Lebanon when in fact it was simply doing a better job of executing and got the Israelis’ goat. In the future, Israel and its neighbors will have to work together to counter rogue threats or become equally consumed by them. The damage that can be done in the area cannot be targeted against one party alone. Iran is becoming less of a threat and Bashar Assad is the kind of guy the Israelis can do business with, as long as he survives — and I suppose that he will, in the same way the Americans and the Israelis kept Hussein and the Saudis around. Don’t kid yourself — what is really behind this peace treaty to come will be the Israeli guarantee of Bashar’s security if the Israelis decide they want him around.

Barak is hurting himself in the long run by not being honest with his own country — he is a tactician more than a leader shaping consensus; he will make the peace this year (because the Israelis and Arabs want it and the referendum, if held, is a sure thing) but probably not be around much afterward unless he changes immensely and delivers on social policy issues which he has ignored until now and begins treating his coalition partners and party members like partners rather than serfs. Like Netanyahu, he has alienated almost everyone in the country because, as I predicted a year ago, he acts like an autocrat who knows everything (I called him a “conceited loner”). The Likud is not voting in its candidate till the summer so they aren’t ready for elections this year anyway. The way things are now, the only party that wins more seats in a new election is Shas and everyone else is smart enough not to allow such an election to take place because it will be at their expense. The development towns, Russians and Israeli Arabs have been screwed this year and they will rise up to vote against Barak next year who will be stuck as Labor’s candidate when Shas brings down the government next year. The real question is who would be the next prime minister once the peace issue becomes secondary — Dan Meridor heading up the Likud would be a real contender who is seen as a substantive gentleman; the image of a strongman will not be required next year. The Israelis want something different than a retired army general and Meridor will get the Sefardi, religious and centrist vote. I think Sharon will arrange for Meridor to take over the Likud and leak damaging info on Bibi if he tries to make a comeback. I don’t see any other realistic contenders in the Likud party at this time.

Before I get too hung up on all this post-peace stuff, I should mention that the overall problem with the situation is that Barak really wants to dictate terms and he might very well be able to do so in the short run. Barak, it should be remembered, was said by me a year ago to favor the Syrian track and has never cared for or been liked by the Palestinians. So in a sense there is no big surprise here that the Palestinian track is not smooth. Problem is that this will not create an atmosphere of peace in the long run. It must be a partnership and mutual trust and respect can only come from one who acts magnanimously and pragmatically with victory rather than dictatorially and arrogantly. That doesn’t have to mean weakness. Israel will never be viewed as a good neighbor if it means people such as Foreign Minister David Levy will get up (even though he was having a temper tantrum at the time) and tell the Knesset that Lebanon and its children will burn — particularly when the Lebanese have nothing to do with the fact that the Syrians are using their country as a launching pad and everyone knows it. To put out the electricity in Beirut for another 6 months after doing it last June is really not the way to get the Lebanese on your side when your real objective is to send Syria a message and you’re pulling out in 4 months anyway. I think more so than anything, the Arabs find the Israelis to be arrogant — their success and military power can be tolerated but it is the arrogance that bites. Even Leftist Israelis have trouble coming to terms with the idea that Israel cannot be control freaks with the Palestinians and have a real peace. This has long been a view of mine and has not changed.

If I were the Arabs, I would advise them to make a deal with Barak and wait a year. He will get voted out, the next prime minister will likely be more easygoing and the implementation will be better once the deal itself is no longer an issue. If the Arabs wait, they will not get a better deal and — if someone in the Likud becomes strong and Clinton leaves the scene — they might get a worse deal or apathy, meaning no deal at all. Meridor cannot make the deal but he can and would implement it. Arafat might prefer eternal conflict but his people won’t stand for it and Arafat will not be around that much longer. Post-Arafat the Palestinian entity will of necessity become less centralized and more transparent or else the people will revolt against it. Assad is counting his days and he knows he cannot leave the scene without a deal and expect his son to survive. All sides are counting on Clinton wanting a legacy and the money they hope he will bring from the US. People on all sides want some kind of closure and I trust they will get it this year.

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