Revision on U.S. Election Prediction for 2000 — 6 March 2000 ….Now shifting to Gore to beat Bush

Tomorrow is Super Tuesday and will be decisive in determining the two candidates. so far, there is no reason to deviate from the prediction that it will be a gore/bush race and that gore has a good chance of convincing voters that bush is a lightweight who has no business being president. when i wrote in december, i estimated that bush was more likeable on television and that this would give him the odds in a close race.

Problem is that Gore is becoming a better campaigner and is succeeding in reducing his negatives. bush is gaining negatives and, while he is also improving as a campaigner, has been forced to take right-wing positions that are alienating the voters he needs to win. he is coming across as a captive of the religious right of his party — the kiss of death in a national campaign — and this image will be very hard to undo especially as the democrats run ads all fall reminding everyone of the stands he took. his “smirk” on tv cuts against him and his polling showed enough damage that he came out and “apologized” for his  anti-catholic association, an apology which seemed calculated. the attacks from McCain are hurting him politically and financially (the war chest he was supposed to have for the campaign has already been squandered). the worst Bradley can say about Gore is that
Gore is too conservative by comparison (which is exactly the kind of criticism Gore needs at this time to establish himself as a non-Liberal) and Gore has become more life-like and appears to be competent and experienced. Better to be viewed as wooden than as unqualified or as some kind of frat boy — the Saturday Night Live sketches of Bush make him look like the latter. Nathan Lane, substituting for David Letterman last week, said the W in George W. Bush stands for “What the hell is this guy doing running for president?” I get the sense that Gore thinks he is going to make mincemeat out of Bush and relishes the fight.

I don’t like Bush walking around talking about Jesus, I detest the Bush family and I don’t like the people they hang out with. By the way, they don’t like my kind either. I don’t need any more reasons to dislike him. if i personally am shifting toward gore this early on, the republicans have major problems coming down the road.

To sum up, I now think that Gore is going to win because Gore has improved and Bush has been damaged beyond what was expected. that means continuity of policy. this is good for the stock market which I think would react negatively to the Republican plan for tax cuts (fear of deficits and higher interest rates); however i still stick with the rest of my year-end predictions which call for a seasonal slump in the market in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. in the middle east, for the short term, clinton looks like less of a lame duck. this is good because it means that the administration will still be around a year from now to shepherd money through congress but meanwhile the best thing to do is get clinton, the salesman, to get everyone to agree and make it look good.

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