WHAT NOW? The Israel/Palestinian Issue….Ariel Sharon…Pollard/Rich pardons…George Soros. ..The “Auschwitz Picture” Revisited based on new information. 8 March 2001

Israeli Domestic Scene – A Strange Equilibrium is coming forth.

Israeli domestic politics have been in such turmoil lately that a draft becomes outdated within 48 hours. Silence has been the best commentary lately. The main reason for the confusion is that Barak was not expected to lose by 25 points to the point where he had no business being part of the coalition that he and Sharon were supposed to have formed when they conspired to set up this election to keep Bibi out. Moving forward, Sharon today swears in and will have a government with Labor and Shas. The next generation of Labor leadership is staying outside the government waiting to run against it, but Peres controls the party enough for now that he alone can decide for Labor if and for how long the partnership will continue. It will continue for as long as Sharon treats Peres right. As for the other swing vote, Eli Yishai of Shas will use the ministerial posts he now has to eliminate the Deri faction from its patronage and he needs 2 years of quiet to achieve this. Had Barak treated Yishai better, Barak would still be prime minister. Long term though, Shas gains at Likud’s expense so Sharon cannot let Shas get too comfortable. 

Sharon acted wisely in having a government built on 3 parties with too much to lose by getting out. Barak had too many small parties in his coalition and any one could bring him down. Sharon was able to tell Sharansky and his Russians to go to the corner when they asked for anything last week because he doesn’t need them now (they ultimately got something, but on his terms). Sharon has unhappy campers within his Likud party because he froze them out to get Labor on board. This is good for now but when Labor turns on him, so will his party because as Barak and Bibi both learned, you don’t leave those who bring you to the dance.

There is a certain equilibrium here that could go on forever but somehow I think it won’t. It will however last awhile and plenty can happen in that time. There are certain tasks that a national unity government can do such as reform the electoral system and make economic reforms such as in the tax system. Peres and Sharon are the Last Two Mohicans of Israel’s Founding Generation. After they leave office, anyone who replaces them will be from the 2nd generation. Mubarak, Arafat, Saddam Hussein and Saudi’s ruler will all be gone in a few years too. Whatever you think of Peres and Sharon everyone takes them seriously because they represent known quantities; they are both well known and respected among Arab leadership. Arab media on election night was surprisingly balanced in its coverage from Israel. Half the country defends one and half the country despises the other and this equation goes both ways. Avraham Burg, the guy who today looks likely to be the next prime minister, has never really done anything to distinguish himself and neither has Haim Ramon, his likely challenger.

Israeli-Palestinian Affairs – An endurance test is about to begin.

Those who say that the differences between the leaders of Israel are less than they appear will be proven right this year. Sharon for decades has been the fall guy running long pass patterns for governments that needed plausible deniability; he has run block and tackle for Peres over the years. The two spend Saturday afternoons in each other’s homes regularly. Only now Sharon is the man in charge; it is a new situation for him and for the people around him. There has been a real deterioration in the security situation for Israelis and they are agitated and changing patterns of behavior. There is consensus that things have gone out of control and must be contained; the old guard is being brought back one more time to fix what Bibi and Barak wrought. Peres will not be a moderating force now; it will be a united front meant to shake Arafat down and perhaps drive him out. Peres will provide cover for Sharon now.

Peres and Sharon will team up to shake Arafat down. The Israeli consensus is that Arafat is mostly useless and that the Palestinian Authority (PA) is no longer viable. Arafat and the PA is not distinguished from the other Palestinian factions meaning that there is no longer a reason to back Arafat against the other radical factions. Arafat and his cronies are not likely to continue to enjoy Israeli financial support. The sanctity of “Area A” territories is no longer a given especially as the Palestinians attack Israelis from territories given to them under Oslo; Israeli forces will probably begin to make raids into that zone although they are not likely to attempt to reconquer those territories. The army generals are chomping at the bit and the propaganda campaign to label everything coming out of the PA as “Terrorist” is the setup.

This might be a good thing if you are a Palestinian who lives there; people in the territories have always resented the Tunis crowd which the Israelis essentially imported and established as governors. The question now is whether it will be any better given the feuding clans that populate the various territories and the lack of any centralized authority.

It’s gonna be a real nasty brawl. The Arabs in the territories are poor, hungry, angry and armed. They are also getting more sophisticated militarily with more Hizbullah operatives now working there. The Israelis are doing a good job of keeping a lid on money going in and so far very little of Arab pledges (or so-called martyr’s payments) have been paid. Yet all Palestinians know they must not let Sharon and Co. get the better of them, put them back in their cages and turn back the clock. They must give the Israelis hell to show Israel that Sharon and the military have no magical solution to this security problem. On the other hand, if they don’t scream “Uncle” soon and have the Israelis loosen the reins, they may go under by force of their own weight and infighting. Only a cessation of the violence will bring food and normalcy to real people. The Palestinians can make Israelis miserable and try to get Israeli public opinion to shift and abandon Sharon; the Israelis can bring the Palestinians to their knees. There is an imbalance here and the question is how it plays out. What wins out – Palestinian momentum built on Israeli weariness from a war of attrition or decisive acts by Israelis determined to reassert control? The test is set. 

It is hard to see what kind of tactics Sharon can use that haven’t already been tried. The latest policy of assassinating the ringleaders seems the most efficient in that it goes after the leaders instead of the previous policy of collective punishment; the main rub is that these hits generally result in an even higher cycle of violence by successors bent on redeeming their dead comrades. Defenders of the policy say that this is because Barak acted against only a few people and so deterrence was not achieved. Expect Sharon to get rid of several hundred people this way and to take away economic and mobility privileges that the elites have come to enjoy. The idea will be to create a climate of fear at all levels and get rid of the notion that one can negotiate by day and fight by night. This was an area that Barak was perceived as weak. He will also try to get the general population to become weary of havoc and see some value to turning down the war.

The Israelis will be quite happy to let the Palestinians destroy themselves over internal battles and Sharon will probably do his part to set them off against each other. He just leaked a hell of a diplomatic cable from the Americans that showed Rajoub (head of Palestinian security apparatus) badmouthing his colleagues to gain favor among the Americans. The Arabs elites outside figure such tragedy couldn’t happen to nicer people. The Americans will just stay away while this sorts itself out. The Europeans will butt in but they don’t matter.

For the next year, I don’t expect anyone to talk of final solutions. Both sides will try to stake out their best possible positions for whatever negotiations take place in the future. Many victims on both sides will suffer. The stupid thing is that the end result will be much the same as it would have been this past year. But this whole exercise is part of the game that must be played; Barak tried to cut corners and failed. Arafat could have dared to be great and cut corners too, but he didn’t even try and the important point is that no one thinks that Arafat would ever make a deal with the Israelis because he was scared to agree to any deal the Israelis could ever accept. Arafat is still alive and Barak is gone, but the end result is that the Israelis are quite ready to defend their country because they believe the Palestinians cannot overcome their hate for them and they have no choice, and the Palestinians have nothing. 

The consolation is that, all things considered, events are moving at hyper-speed. In October, there was profound alienation among Israelis and Palestinians. We got to this point faster than one should have expected and this episode is a necessary prelude to the future. I have said before that the Israelis (even the ones on the Left) will never be internally reconciled to major concessions for peace without having first tried to let the best of their hawks take a stab at getting the Palestinians to heel. If Sharon tries and fails at achieving a military solution to this political problem, they have to yield. Sharon was handed a silver platter; Barak was prepared to agree to major concessions right up to the elections after the Palestinians walked away from Camp David and made an Intifadah for 4 months instead of dealing with it. This is no longer denied by them and it is a truth that will come back to haunt. The concessions were not enough for the Palestinians but they will have to judge if it was worth it for them to not pocket what they could get at the time. I still believe that within a year the Israeli electorate will again shift to the Left in its cyclical moodswing, but meanwhile Sharon has a free kick with everyone standing by for the time being and giving him the benefit of the doubt. He just might score. If he does, nobody will pick up the losing players from the field, least of all their fellow Arabs. 

The coming year is an endurance test for both sides that each has set for the other. It is as much a test to their societies as it is to their armies and leaders. I have no idea how it will turn out. The Israelis are, due to a strange alignment of constellations, more united in conviction and alliances than normal. The Palestinians have spirit and nothing to lose but lack fuel. 

Some thoughts about Ariel Sharon, both pro and con:

It is wrong to delegitimize Sharon’s election because of low voter turnout. 62% turnout is lower than normal but American turnout hardly exceeds 50%. Even had every Arab turned out to vote for Barak, he would still have lost by 10-12 points. Turns out he lost by 25 and there was a clear signal sent by Israeli voters, those who voted and those who didn’t. Public opinion counts and that’s one reason all sides are dealing with the reality of Sharon instead of racing to demonize him.

Sharon has a history of running PR campaigns that cover up his true intentions and that mask upcoming military operations behind announcements of compromise actions. Pay little attention to what he and his ministers say in the press. Watch what he does. The last several incoming prime ministers have been welcomed as “men of their word.” Then we find out otherwise. I don’t know how Sharon fits in but people who know him on a personal level tend to like him in ways that they didn’t like Barak or Bibi. This is a man who has some friends although there is no shortage of people burned by him either.

Sharon’s main tarnish among those who hate him are the Sabra and Chatila massacres in Lebanon during the 1980’s by Lebanese troops allied with Israel while Israeli troops were in control of Beirut. Let’s take a critical look at this episode. Sharon had troops standing 300 yards away who did nothing while massacres took place for 3 days and let’s say he knew or should have known what was going on. But ultimately it wasn’t Jews killing Arabs. It was Arabs killing Arabs. It is convenient to blame Sharon but the question remains: And what if the Jews weren’t there? Would it have been any different in the long run? Or only if some other intermediary (ie: Syria) were in place to keep these Arabs away from each other? The Jews had a moral responsibility to be their “brother’s keeper” but ultimately they did not direct the massacre. The Israelis have never shown any willingness to stand in the way of Arab vs. Arab except where it concerns their interests. They have never put themselves on the line for collaborators or allies whom they have viewed more as prostitutes than as true friends; perhaps the relationship was mutual. It is not a righteous stand but it is realistic. Since when do Arabs expect Israel to protect them from each other? Sharon does not deserve to be trashed past a certain point over this incident and that’s why people have never stopped dealing with him.

I met Sharon about 5 years ago in Miami; he speaks English but tends to keep to a script and does not come across as terribly brilliant in that language. I couldn’t find anything to talk to him about at a dinner party and, at least when I met him, thought he was an overrated has-been. So much for my estimate so far. I still feel he will turn out to be a disappointment to Israelis as prime minister but he has been quite clever so far in running his election and putting together a government. He is a pro at working the system who is avoiding the mistakes of earlier players, and considering that George Bush has done as well as he has the past 45 days, it is a bad bet to sit around underestimating Ariel Sharon.

Broader Thoughts about Current Issues Related to this Subject

Remember Nachson Wachsman? He was an elite Israeli paratrooper killed by Hamas kidnappers in the mid 90’s. I just read excerpts from the trial transcript of one of the kidnappers. The defense called as a witness the leader of the commando team to ascertain whether or not Wachsman was killed by friendly fire. The line of questioning was strong. Not a kangaroo trial by any means. Rather amazing when you consider that there was no mood for charity toward the perpetrators of a prominent terrorist act. Compare this against the recent show trials involving “Zionist collaborators” followed by same-day execution by firing squads in the territories. Yes, collaborators are traitors who deserve to be tried and punished. Even killed. Fragile states feel the need to cut corners for their survival is at stake. Israel’s early years were not pretty either as to internal justice. But there is something to be said for the value and appearance of justice particularly when everything one does in 2001 is viewed on the global stage, be it CNN, BBC, ANN or Al-Jazeera TV (independent Quatari news network that provides 24/7 live coverage of anything going on in the Arab World). A society that suspends these values suffers for it sooner or later. The PA as it presently exists will ultimately fail not because Israel destroyed it but because the PA failed its own people in its mission to replace the Israeli occupation with something more representative of the people it was to represent. There is a sense in this corrupt entity that the term “collaborator” is too often a pretense for settling internal scores. The next generation of leadership, if it is to deliver hope and progress, must act democratically, realistically and beneficently towards its own people.

It also must begin to deal more honestly with the truth. Faking nerve gas reactions, negating Jewish religious history and creating false Palestinian history to gain propaganda points is not what I had in mind. There is enough justice to Palestinian aspirations to stick to the truth but till now this has been a low priority. Palestinian rights will not be won on CNN; there is no end-run around the Israeli public whose trust must be won and which was never sought during the past 7 years. Realism in negotiations requires willingness to compromise and no one will dare to compromise when Palestinian leaders and media indoctrinate its people with false stories of false hopes. The Israelis are busy arguing among themselves as they reinterpret historical truths and there is no shortage of manipulation going on from both the Left and the Right. I recently attended a full day conference strictly on the issue of historical revisionism in Israel. It is a very complicated area with fierce and personal contests going on within academia. But at least the Israelis are dealing with the issue.

Here is a truth the Palestinians have to deal with. Not everything is equivalent. When history is written, it will note that the day after the Israelis left a sacred site under an agreement, it was rampaged and destroyed by a Palestinian mob. Two weeks later, some Israelis were lynched for no good reason at the Ramallah police station again by a mob and then their bodies were thrown out the window from inside the station. When Hanan Ashrawi got on CNN to talk about it, she was cynical instead of humane. Always on the propaganda prowl. This was probably more fundamentally hurtful than the lynching itself. On all levels just from these two incidents, Israelis concluded they had no partner for peace. The party line answer: What about the children getting shot by the Israelis? Response: Why were those kids out there in the first place looking for trouble? If you care about them, don’t use them as props. Keep them at home. A women’s committee in Tulkarem recently petitioned the local authorities to do just that. Let the men instead of the kids be on the front lines to resist the occupation. There is no equivalency here, Period. 

Not everything has to be equivalent and it is wrong to try and equate every tactic used by one side with some other tactic used by the other side. The Israelis are no angels but they clearly play by different rules than their neighbors. Just ask Nachson Wachsman’s kidnappers who got to put the soldiers’ butts to the fire at a trial. Witness the backfire after Israelis lynched an Arab running away from the scene of a major terrorist incident in Netanyah last week. I don’t see that charity or soul-searching sprouting forth from Arab public opinion or institutions because the majority are so sure they’re victims who can do no wrong. This is a situation where everyone wants an apology and no one on either side is going to get one. Not everything can be excused and nobody can claim to be fully right. If anyone is demanding 100% justice, they will be still looking for it in 100 years. This is a “choose the best answer” situation; not a “choose the right answer” slice of life. If I had to be “right” all the time, I’d have no friends and family holidays would be impossible. Why should peoples with real conflicts expect better?

Hard Truth cuts both ways. In 1988, I visited Auschwitz and Birkenau in Poland. These were the most infamous of the Nazi concentration camps. The next week I went to Yad Vashem, the Holocaust Museum, in Jerusalem. The one thing I remember is the aerial photo from the British Air Force showing the concentration camp in great detail which is particularly compelling when you have just visited the place. The overwhelming impression that is conveyed is that the allies had to have known what was going on there. How could they not have bombed? This past month, an article in the Forward newspaper observes that the photo was not developed until 1978. The technology to have developed such a photo did not exist in 1944 when it was taken. Meaning the photo was true but its placement was misleading. I resent the manipulation to argue for a view of history; I spoke to the President of the Holocaust Museum in Washington who admitted there is a problem here and he will be looking into it. There are no sacred cows when you visit globalthoughts.com, I’m afraid. 

The point is not to get into a pissing contest about truth; the point is that if we all try our best to deal with it, we can move forward with clearer lenses. Truth itself is never simple; I would expect 50 different accounts of the historical conference from 50 attendees and have made no attempt to come up with one myself because it was simply too complicated a matter. I have no expectation of ever knowing the truth about history; I have no idea what really happened even today in Israel even with more media than I can consume, let alone 50 years ago. But I try my best to work with the facts as I know them thinking forward toward constructive solutions.

Counterpoint: George Soros

Here is a thought on the same subject from a different angle. Mr. Soros made an interesting comment on the Charlie Rose PBS interview program a few weeks ago. He said the best year of his life was at 14 in Hungary resisting Nazi occupation with a false identity. He felt he was on the side of angels, breaking every rule in order to survive, and that the world couldn’t touch him. It is a romantic viewpoint and if you put yourself in the position of a 14 year old Palestinian kid, you could see why one might be out on the streets throwing rocks and feeling invincible. The rub is that the grownups are using the innocence of children who know not what they do and who are not exactly being told that education is Priority One. The double tragedy is that there are many parents who do want “out” but have no choice because they and their children are being intimidated. George Soros was not being sent out by his parents to make trouble for the Nazis but to get food and water.

The Pollard Affair in the Context of the Rich Pardon

I haven’t commented on this in a few years and there may not be anything on this site’s archive about this so I am stating this for the record in case you are unaware of it. The Rich pardon tells you why Pollard is still in jail. As you might have heard, Israelis from Barak on down and much of the Jewish community lobbied Clinton hard to get Rich off. In 1993, I visited Washington and spent a day on Capitol Hill asking people in the know about Pollard. I spoke with a senator, the head of the house intelligence committee and his chief of staff. It was made clear to me that the Israelis didn’t give a damn about getting him released and there was no way these guys, two of three non-Jewish, were about to be more Catholic than the Pope. Pollard is still in jail for three reasons but the third is most important: 1. The Israelis have never tried to help get him out. They want him far away where he can’t talk. 2. Pollard’s people have not greased the wheels with moolah as did Marc Rich. 3. Many people in government, Jews more than anyone, are so angry about Pollard because all Jews are more suspect as Israeli spies-in-waiting since the affair became known in 1986. The CIA Director threatened Clinton with resignation if he agreed to pardon him. Down deep, the US Government doesn’t trust Jews and I expect that even if one becomes president, bureaucrats will keep secrets from such a person. Even if true that Pollard was screwed in his plea bargain and that spies for the Soviet Union have served less time, the man is doomed and he is being treated worse than normal for prisoners of his type. The fact that he can’t pretend to show remorse and that his family and attorneys were both incompetent and self-serving hasn’t helped him either. Regardless of whatever he gave the Israelis, the damage to the overall relationship has been enormous and everyone involved from the American side wants to keep him around as an example to the Israelis never to let this happen again.

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