Quick Super Tuesday comment: The statistics out of New York and California showed the Bush polled weaker than expected among women and Hispanics. Also, people don’t believe what he says. Bush is going to have problems and this confirms my shift earlier this week.
India/Pakistan: Tension is heating up in the area and i don’t know if this is just theatrics pre-clinton visit. my sense is that the indians feel they could go to war and finish off the pakistanis in kashmir and get rid of this irritant. They just announced a large increase in the defense budget (which seems odd considering the needs of the economy — the Economist had a good report this week on the Indian economy and budget) and various bombs going off in pakistan point to “something’s going on here” as in the indians are trying to provoke the pakistanis into shooting first. There are also reports of a more militant attitude among the military and political leaders. i haven’t gotten a clear read as to whether or not the pakistani government had a hand in the hijacking last december but my sense is that it was a pakistani group that was not under the control of the pakistani government.
Meanwhile, there is now disappointment setting in over musharraf who is bullying the courts and who likely just had the previous prime minister’s attorney murdered today. He has been all talk and no walk in a system that is terribly corrupt and backward; the courts recently ruled to impose an islamic banking system that would kill off an already bankrupt country. Kashmir and last year’s nuclear “mine is bigger than yours” with India has helped to make Pakistanis feel a bit tall but the game is becoming stale for both sides. i can’t tell whether or not (a) he’s the type of guy who’d be happy to have a war to distract everyone, (b) is a moderately responsible guy who would want to avoid a war; or (c) will be dragged into one no matter what because the indians think that pakistan is bankrupt, on the ropes in kashmir and will be forced to reform their government (and therefore be a more stable democratic neighbor) after musharaf gets his butt kicked in a war.
Reports reaching me are that the CIA and Chinese are quite concerned there will be war — perhaps even nuclear — in this theater and that surprises are imminent after the clinton visit.
What to do? The subcontinent is not one of my strongest areas. My fleeting opinion is that Might Makes Right over here (meaning India holds the cards in Kashmir; all Pakistan can do is make trouble) and the risk of resorting to nuclear devices by the weaker party to compensate is high. Kashmir needs to be put away at Pakistan’s expense so that it knows that adventures in that area will not be worth its while. This problem is only going to become more dangerous if left to the hotheads in the area seeking distractions. India should suck Pakistan into a trap over Kashmir and hand them a decisive defeat and then offer a carrot to put this issue away — (ie: Pakistanis with family relations may visit Kashmir without visas and create a similar zone on the Pakistani side for reciprocal visits, the same way you have a free zone in the border areas of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay). This would be particularly beneficial toward accommodating tourism and that would be good for all parties. Meanwhile, let the Pakistanis stew in their juices, get fed up with their dreams of Kashmir, throw out a discredited army, and turn toward true domestic reform and a market economy. The cleaning up of this issue will also force the Indians to turn toward a more serious commitment to domestic reform; these defense expenditures along with excessive subsidies that ultimately do not provide people with the goods they need must be replaced with more market-oriented economic priorities if India is to ever move to the next level of development.
