After seventy hours of the first phase of air attacks by the American British Alliance in Iraq, it seems that the aims of this action was not just to force Iraq to keep UNSCOM in further operation, or to destroy Iraq’s capacity to wage non conventional war. It seems that there are further phases in that long planed air assault, that might lead to the final breakup of Iraq from its present make up to several political pieces, but mainly to finish Saddam’s regime for ever. In this respect the last war action involved America spending at least half a billion dollars on throwing 416 Tomahawk missiles on 89 targets within Iraq, each missile like that worth a million dollars, after 650 air sorties over Iraq many military and non conventional warfare locations, it is a real massive attempt to change Iraq historic make up for a new political arrangement fitting American interest and geopolitical realities of end of the century.
Iraq in its present political makeup was formed by the British after occupying the country in 1917 in WW One. They mistakenly united a country that was always made up of several districts, with different ethnic groups, who have nothing in common with each other. Now it is obvious that this political arrangement never really worked, and this is why a regime a like Saddam was able to survive so long in the brutal fashion it did after so many coup d’etat, revolutions, regional wars against most neighbors internal upheavals etc. The country today is simply devastated in all respects no society is actually functioning there except this brutal regime. With average per capita of only 247 dollars and a GDP of only 5.7 bill.usd [Down from thirty bill.usd in the Gulf war in 1991] this country needs an urgent change soon. America has probably decided that time is ripe after seven years of sanctions and embargo on its oil exports shipments, its only means of economic survival, for a new political arrangement that will rise in the next few years. A country so divided up, so destroyed up without hope will simply receive any period of peace and quiet, otherwise it will further deteriorate to become a part of neighboring Iran or Turkey soon. Since annexing parts of the country to these local regional powers is now the worse alternative America is in a hurry to dismember Iraq to its own natural pre-1917 local regional powers, each ruled by its own regional local elites, if at all are available, Kurds in the north, Suni in Baghdad, and Shi’a in the south.
The aim of the last war action was therefore to dismantle and actually destroy the only military power of Saddam’s regime still standing, the Republican Guard 75,000 men in seven armored formations or divisions each having 1,200 armored cars and tanks of all types, a job well done it seems in just seventy hours of air war. The pain inflicted on the main ten camps of these formations will certainly cause the decline of the power of these elite troops, and their influence on the population of Iraq. Four of these bases were totally destroyed with thousands of casualties all over Iraq, so Saddam is now barren from any real defense against any enemy. This hopefully will open the road to any future attempt to remove him from his power base, in the coming few months, through further air attacks on his centers of power. The non conventional warfare development centers were also major targets, but the main targets were the forces that keep Saddam safe, so their demise now will cause an immediate chain reaction, that will remake Iraq internal composition in the next few years.
Iraq therefore is on the eve of major internal change that will unseat Saddam either from his own people, his own Republican Guards, or other centers of opposition as weak as they are all now. Saddam is totally isolated in his own falling country, no trust in anyone else. The country and its 23 million poor starving people simply have nothing to lose now in all respects, and that is the basic condition for any attempt to unseat him now. [Consider that the US bombed the social and welfare ministry during this campaign which they didn’t do in 1991. They bombed it on purpose to further this objective.] People simply have nothing more to lose, 6,000 babies die each month now, rations are few, no food is available to most people, salaries are two dollars per month anyway, so people will either rise, arms are available everywhere to everyone, or some groups will do something it can not be worse. Soldiers, merchants, politicians, Kurds, Shi’a now will start organizing to do something. Fear is no longer there as before, no Republican Guards anymore to destroy any opposition anywhere, even the secret service is no more there in force, their headquarters were destroyed too in the bombings of Baghdad, and Basra, Mosul too. In the 1991 Gulf war, such targets were not hit at all, the US saved the Guard’s seven divisions from Kuwait, all in full gear from being hurt at all. They wanted Saddam to survive, now it is wholly different. Breakup of the county is the only goal now. New political order is in place in every district and region, the people are left bare to handle their own future by their own hands post-Saddam.
Anyway, the bombs destroyed the means of control and communications all over the country. Baghdad is now isolated from all other outlying regions, so all is possible now Dismemberment of Iraq will leave this country forever weak and isolated, not dangerous to its neigbours, or the oil flow from the region to the USA, and that is America’s main aim now. Iraq can no longer field a huge army of seventy divisions as aggressive as it had been since 1980, or threaten anyone with missiles or non conventional weapons – Israel Saudis in 1991 It will be divided up to slices, all over the country and this is America aim now. Iraq will no longer be the Germany of the Arab Middle East, or Imperial Japan of the Orient.
The Americans are experienced with such threats, since early 20th century. They can still carry the same containment policies at century’s end, as throughout the century in other regions. That is America’s responsibility in the world today. Make it safe from renegade regimes, threatening world peace and stability, Germany, Japan were such regimes once. The cold war Giant the Soviet Union was the greatest threat ever to world peace and US supremacy, and it was dead since 1989 thanks to US cold war policy, and its internal demise. Also France under Charles De Gaulle was a problem in the sixties and today it is much less formidable. Egypt under Nasser was such a regional threat, and after three wars with Israel backed by the USA Sadat changed Egypt’s course to peace. Libya under Qaddafi used to be a threat, it is no longer so after the US bombing in 1986.Iraq under Saddam since 1980 is still a threat now.
Only present day radical Islamic Iran since 1979 will be left alone in this region as a threat to world peace and stability and order. They will deal with that threat after Iraq is dealt with in the next few months or years. Woodrow Wilson reluctantly, F.D. Roosevelt very slowly, but surely Harry Truman. in the cold war, and Korea was very harsh. Eisenhower,.Kennedy,-in the 1962 missile crisis in Cuba – and Johnson. not to mention Nixon, Reagan and Bush later, very decisively dealt with harsher threats from the USSR Iraq Libya and other threats. ALL GLOBAL AND REGIONAL THREATS in this century were dealt with. CLINTON IS DOING IT NOW TO Iraq simple as that.
Oded Yinon is a lecturer and Middle East military and economic analyst based in Jerusalem.
