Middle East Situation Bulletin 17 November 1999

I haven’t written on the subject since mid-August and that is because 
just about everything I wrote at that time still stands. Nothing has 
happened to change my opinion. Just a few points as to recent 
developments because things are happening, pretty much on or ahead of 
schedule and it is almost time for these developments to enter the 
public domain. These developments have been corroborated at this point 
by both Israeli and Arab sources and are estimated by myself to be at 
least 80% reliable: 

It is clear that the meetings in Paris last week were significant. I 
don’t know if Barak and Bashaar Assad met in Paris but it is highly 
probable that Assad met with senior Israelis. Israel and Syria have 
pretty much negotiated their deal via Bashaar Assad and King Abdullah of 
Jordan. Hafez Assad’s health is deteriorating to the point of concern 
(ie: leukemia) and it is reported that Chirac passed along medical 
evidence to this effect to Barak leaked by Syria for the purpose of 
letting the Israelis know it is time to make a deal. Bashaar is not 
terribly popular in Syria (the power struggle is already underway with 
bloody results to show for it — Rifaat Assad’s camp is being put down 
with force and he has been declared persona non grata in Syria) and 
needs a boost now in order to ensure that he will be The Man when his 
father passes on and his padre had better rubberstamp the deal now 
before it is too late. Abdullah’s people are meeting with Hafez 
presently. Barak is walking around with the grin of the Cheshire Cat, 
meaning he’s got the feeling that the deal is in the bag and those 
troops in Lebanon are coming home this July. I have good reason to 
expect announcement of an MOU (memorandum of understanding) concerning israeli troop withdrawal in lebanon in the next 2-3 weeks. The Lebanese have made it clear this week that the Palestinians are to stop hostile acts against Israel from Lebanon. Israeli army chief of staff Maoz today came out for the first time dropping his opposition to unilateral troop 
withdrawal from Lebanon. No question that things are happening. 

The settler movement is OK with Barak and is convinced that he will be 
good for their interests, meaning that 90% of them will not have to 
evacuate and that in any event he will not bend to any pressure. The 
theater at Maon last week did not represent the mainstream of the 
settler movement but rather some Americans and Breslav Chasidim. Shas 
(the Sefardi party in the coalition with 17 seats) can do whatever they 
want and be tolerated (and paid off to some extent) for now under the 
assumption that their votes are the swing votes needed in a referendum 
to pass the peace deals; the Russians are not worth too much attention 
because their votes are split as it is but they will get goodies at the 
appropriate time. Barak is given wide credit across the political 
spectrum as being a strategist who is doing a good job balancing forces 
and keeping to his program. 

I expect significant announcements during the next few months and have 
no problem with Barak’s timetables being met. Once the Syrian track 
moves, the rest will follow quickly. Arafat is also in poor health with 
Parkinsons; he can have his state now, imperfect but true or hold out 
and maybe not live to see it. No way is he going to miss out on bringing 
his baby to term any more than Shas would be crazy enough to leave the 
government. He is saying No to the 5% withdrawal offered to show he is 
not Israel’s patsy (and because he is unhappy about the perception that 
the agreement with Syria makes his agreements less valuable) but he has 
no choice and within a few weeks will accept it pretty much as offered. 
Meanwhile, the Israelis keep dumping a lot of money into his personal 
bank accounts. 

His wife, by the way, is increasingly involved in his business affairs 
and is a Sorbonne educated person and no flake. She has been out of 
country for a few months while a dispute between families and respective 
business interests was being settled but has recently returned. I am 
satisfied with explanations that her recent comments were taken out of 
context via simultaneous translation and the Israelis have chosen to 
ignore the matter. The Clintons will be less forgiving since she only 
went to Ramallah as a favor to Arafat and got burned in the process 
because Arafat’s comments created a storm for Hillary with New York’s 
Jews who don’t need to have Arafat create any reasons not to vote for 
her.