On Saturday, I was approached in synagogue with rumors of Assad’s demise. I replied that I have heard these rumors since 1983 and refuse to hear more of them until I am informed officially that he is dead. Turns out this rumor was right.Turns out that the analysis about Syria being on auto-pilot since the middle of February was probably right. We already see (as pointed out here before) that the challenge of Rifaat Assad is slated to come as he is objecting even before the funeral, although if Bashar is wily the security services will eliminate or neutralize Rifaat before long. If they don’t, Bashar will face real threats and will have to surprise many people in order to survive in power more than 1-2 years.
I view the death of Assad at this point in time as a positive. Barak and everyone else had given up on him. Syria will keep the Lebanese frontier quiet for the next few months; no point in stirring up any more problems than are necessary. Arafat now has the golden opportunity to settle for less than 100% with Israel without having Assad criticizing him or knowing that Hafez Assad would have cut a better deal. After Arafat cuts his deal for less than 100%, so can Bashar Assad. Lebanon can start counting the months (figure 9-12) until it gets free of Syria.
Israel will announce a deal with Arafat in the coming weeks and Barak is, with over 40% probability, likely to call a snap election rather than a referendum. Ariel Sharon is the only Likud challenger for the next 6 months and he will get his butt kicked against Barak in an election. It is a perfect opportunity for Barak to shake up his government which was no good from Day One (but he had no better choice in the matter), try for a better hand, get a mandate for his policies and get the idea of elections off the map for a year. The optimum date for elections in my opinion are during September; before then, people are on vacation; October is the holidays when everything shuts down and Clinton gets booted in November but leaves office in January. The lame duck Congress session in December will be a good chance to pass aid packages for the Middle East.
