Global Thoughts – 19 November 2000

American Presidential Situation — Neither Side Wins In the End
Given the split legislature we have elected, I project that Bush will be better to deal with Congress. He will seek consensus and get bills passed. Gore will be self-righteous and wind up in gridlock. Also, if Gore wins at this point, the Republicans will spend the next 4 years plotting revenge to make his presidency ungovernable. However, the stock market will be negative at any indication of tax cutting by Bush as Greenspan will move to raise interest rates. The loss in share values and higher interest rates will more than offset any tax cuts to the average person. This is one case where it might be better to be the loser than the winner; whoever wins will have a hard time for the next 4 years.

Syria, Hizbullah and the Latest Palestinian Uprising — Toning Down
The Israelis are sending out signals they are concerned that Bashar Assad is full of himself, flush with what appears to be Hizbullah successes on the border, dangerously insulated and, based on his inexperience and group of radical advisors around him, ready to try Israel. This threat would be more credible if the source of these reports were not a budget-hungry hungry defense ministry in the middle of budget negotiations. Here are some contradictory signals: Assad is sending economic attaches to neighbors such as Turkey and Jordan and not trying to get them to stop trading with Israel as a precondition to doing business with Syria. Not the kind of stand you would take if you were preparing for a regional war. Reports in the Arab media note that Hizbullah is repositioning itself in Lebanon as a political party finding that it cannot get domestic support as a military party. The economy of Southern Lebanon is suffering heavily from any instability and the absence of the Israelis. He made some fiery speeches at the Islamic summit in Quatar but behind the scenes the Syrians made Arafat’s life miserable at that summit and almost caused him to walk out. Assad has enough problems right now consolidating his base; he is under pressure in Lebanon as well as within Syria. This is no time for adventures abroad.

There are also reports in various press that so far this Intifidah is limited to a relatively small number of activists and that it does not have broad street support like earlier uprisings. There is also much more investment dollars at stake by Palestinians who are seeing their investments in the territories at risk if this kind of uprising keeps up. The bottom line is that so far, if money talks and bull– walks, the indications are that Syria is not looking for a fight with Israel, and that both the Hizbullah and leaders of this Intifadah have to be careful not to carry on too much because public opinion of the Arab residents in the territories matters and is not keen on living amidst constant havoc that makes a bad situation worse. Also, and this is the most important point, the Palestinians are running out of ammunition and the Israelis have started blocking money and goods going into the territories; black market prices for bullets are now 8x what they were two months ago. So I expect things to tone down a bit for now.

Russian Debt and Price of Oil

Russian debt was upgraded this week. This means they are making progress and it also means the price of oil can go down a bit without a risk of the Russians going into default.

Correction re Congress

I once mentioned that the majority of congress-people don’t have passports. This has been long thought to be true. The New York Times just did a survey and found it is not true today. They wrote an article about it.

A Theological Thought about “Hamas”

Two weeks ago in synagogue Rabbi Berman of the Jewish Center of New York gave a public lecture on the story of Genesis and the flood. The essential story of creation is that God came upon a chaotic planet and created order from amidst the chaos. The flood was his act of restoring the planet to a state of chaos because he was unhappy with his creation. The world was “Hamas” (the Hebrew word used in the bible) – corrupt. The item that immediately precedes God’s decision to create the flood is at the beginning of chapter 6: The sons of God looked at the daughters of man… meaning People A looked down upon People B as less in the divine image (even though God created all people in the image of God) and dehumanized them, treating them as objects. This led to the flood and ultimate chaos. 

Put by Ivan in a contemporary context, the dehumanization of either side by the other is a corruption that creates the conditions for “Hamas” to exist. Today’s Hamas is a social movement that thrives because of the fissures within the society which bred it. I’m sure it is a coincidence that Hamas calls itself Hamas (I believe the Arabic translation for the word is Anger) but its greatest draw is the corruption within the society around it. But the corruption of Palestine is not without its Israeli causes or effects. Either both sides will learn to humanize each other or they will both be consumed by chaos. It is a timeless lesson that favors no one side over the other; it may explain the cause of today’s great sorrow as divine will as well as suggest a way out.

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