Heading into the Israeli Elections…Just 12 Days to Go!

I think I am about to clean up here with just 12 days to go. Now the people that wanted to bet me bibi would win are refusing to take bets. As i forecast in my 60 day futures, barak is gaining ground at the end and mordechai is losing ground in the center as people want a winner in the first round to be put out of their misery and it is just clear that people can’t stand bibi. Barak hit pay dirt by taking a stand with the mostly secular russians against the ultra-orthodox who controlled the interior ministry and humiliated russians. The russians and ultra-orthodox are the 2 pillars of bibi’s support and they are now at each other’s throats. Barak finally figured out he could never get the ultra-orthodox vote but he could get enough of the russkies to break the stalemate. At the end, the ultra-orthodox will be careful how they act since they see that barak will run the show and they will be tossed out with nothing. A strong show for bibi by them will draw hatred and contempt and they know it. They are in fact moving to deal with barak now. Now it is up to mordechai who polls at less than 10% to make a deal with barak — if he doesn’t, he will be one of the most hated people in the country after the elections and he will also be a big loser with no portfolio so he is best to make the best deal now for himself and his colleagues. If mordechai gets out, I expect the israel-arab candidate will also get out. it’s important here not only for barak to win but to win big so he will have a mandate that rests on jewish majority votes otherwise compromises made by him will always be seen to be illegitimate. If however the race goes into a second round, barak will have to give major concessions to get the arabs out to vote in round 2 because he will need their votes to push him over the top in a runoff.