The Israelis are positioning themselves for military action, an offensive against the PA. It could be a bluff, but Netanyahu and Barak bluffed, got called, and quickly lost all credibility and power. Sharon has too many reasons not to do so. (1) He personally would like to knock off Arafat. (2) Peres is not going to ultimately decide Sharon’s fate — Sharon’s party will, and they are running out of patience. Peres can leave the government and essentially retire whenever he wants; it is for him to decide whether he wants power or principle. Peres is quickly losing any friends he had abroad because they are viewing him as a fig leaf for a Right-wing government.
99% of Jewish Israel has decided that it is hopeless to deal with Arafat. A good number of strategists have concluded that even if Arafat is replaced by something worse, they can live with it for various reasons (ie: a more identifiable target that everyone can agree they oppose). The US sees no reason to deal with Arafat either and I have yet to meet an Arab who has anything good to say about this man or the people around him; only the Europeans have use for him. I personally feel that nature will take its course, the Palestinians will push the fundamentalists aside and will, after a time, put up a rather reasonable leader to talk turkey with the Israelis.
This week, Jerusalem got shelled for the first time since 1967. It was a bit of a surprise and it affects estimates of the situation.
I just made a round of calls to the region and it is clear that people are sitting around waiting for something to happen. Sharon has broad support for whatever he plans to do and is constrained more by a divided cabinet than divided public opinion.
We have reached the point where just about everyone sees stalemate under the current conditions. The Egyptians had their chief of intelligence in Jerusalem last week; I assume based on all the comments coming out of official Cairo this past week that the meetings went poorly. Mubarak today said there can be no peace as long as Sharon is in power. The Israelis don’t think much of Mubarak either; he was not friendly to left-wing governments either over the past decade so there is little interest in what he has to say.
Historically, in this region when you see no way forward, you fight your way out. Even if you lose, you might win just because the reshuffling of the deck creates new opportunities. I expect activity to take place soon and hope things will be clearer by the time I arrive in early October for a quick visit. The economy is poor in the entire Middle East and the instability over the Palestinian issue is contributing to it. Everyone has an interest in moving this matter forward.
