The defeat was first and foremost personal to barak and a punishment for his betrayal of those that voted him into office. it was also meant to be a punishment of sorts by centrists and Labor supporters to the palestinians by lovers scorned. the peace process itself had more support than he personally and still gets 70% approval; it was his specific moves and personality that were offensive to all sides. remember that sharon hardly campaigned or said anything except that he would bring peace and hope (stuff the Left usually says) and that was by design.
my reactions and forecasts will be shaped by who joins the government; will it be Peres as a neutered foreign minister (an odd couple with great promise of endless subterfuge)? Does Dan Meridor (respected centrist) come in? What about Avigdor Lieberman (blithering yahoo)? Barak erred fatally when he chose the wrong partners for his government and the duration of Sharon’s government will depend to the largest degree on who he takes into it. Also, will Labor join a unity government? If there are too many loonies in Sharon’s government, half the Labor Party will refuse to join it and the price for going with Labor will alienate Sharon from too many of his natural allies.
As I have said before, I see this occurrence as a diversion driven by a gut reaction based on recent events, a profound sense that the political system is rotten and nonresponsive, and a coordinated effort between Sharon and Barak to keep Netanyahu out for as long as possible. I expect new elections within a year and for the long-term trends in the region to be unaffected. The short term shakeup which is to come may bring welcome maturity to both sides and some new personalities to the scene who bring clean slates.
Tonight was to be known as the Night of the Long Knives for Ehud Barak. Pleasant Dreams. He must be standing over my shoulder; he announced his attention to resign before I could even press Send!
