Seems like I’m not the only one confused these days. For the past 2 weeks, the press doesn’t make sense viz. the mideast peace process and we’re told that Barak is in stalemate with the PA and the Syrians. I visited Texas this weekend to talk with colleagues who usually know better. My sources are also confused but are drawing different conclusions. Discussions were with American and Israeli active or retired military officers who deal with these issues daily.
Assad hasn’t seen people for a few weeks. Syria seems to be on auto-pilot. Mubarak just went Sunday to Beirut for the first time in decades and the Americans and Israelis ran to Egypt to be briefed. Even Albright changed her schedule. Clearly, Lebanon is not interesting to people. The meeting was with Syria and the press out of the two countries was positive; the two leaders hate each other for years. The thinking is that the Syrian/Israeli deal has been reached in principle (and has been for some time) and is being fine tuned although it still remains to be announced. Maybe a May announcement. As for the bruhaha over the leaking of the Syrian talks: Syria leaked some of the document to Al-Hayat; the prime minister felt the leaks were selective and then had his office leak the rest to Haaretz. Here’s what my sources think will happen:
Israel will pull out of Lebanon in April. They want a Syrian guarantee that the South Lebanese Army and civilians will not be slaughtered after the Israelis leave. At this point, that’s the only thing the Israelis care about; they don’t want to be responsible for a massive slaughter. There will be some atrocities and these won’t be publicized but nothing massive. The Israelis will pull to what will be called the 4 June 1967 lines (constructive ambiguity); the parties have been only 200-300 meters apart and Barak has said he is not going to dilly-dally over this point any more. American troops will probably have a role to play. Israelis will be allowed to work on the Golan and it will become a major hi-tech development zone; it is hoped this will help alleviate Israel’s unemployment problem in its development towns. A few thousand Palestinian-Lebanese refugees will get family reunification; the rest will be paid nicely to go wherever they can. Money is already being raised via Europe and Japan. Some Palestinians (the ones who bring value) will be integrated into Lebanon.
The Syrians are holding out hoping Clinton will lean on Israel to get himself a legacy. The Israelis are holding out for a shopping list from Washington for the same reason. Some of the demands by both sides are nuts from the American standpoint. Arafat the same thing and he figures that whatever he doesn’t get by September won’t matter because by then Clinton will be history and he’ll just go and declare his state at that point and take what he has. Arafat right now says he wants Abu Dis now and this appears to be the cause of the stalemate; I’m told he doesn’t want it now because he knows that Abu Dis is the last thing he will get of significance so he wants to receive it at the end and hold it up as the big prize. The Israelis are playing along and know he will get it; the Parliament building is being built there. So this stalemate is really bazaar behavior meaning it’s a bit of a charade.
Water: The hope is that the scientist teams who are working 24/7 will figure out how to get a desalinization plant to be built in the Beit Shean valley to be feasible at 40 cents per cubic meter. A pipeline from Turkey will cost 60 cents and that is feasible but too costly. The minute this solution is found, that’s the end of this problem for the Levant. As I have noted in earlier writings, the Golan is not a significant water source to Israel and that issue is a red herring.
Politics: US: Israel wants a Republican congress to pass all the aid it hopes to get; Gore as president promises Clinton continuity which has been exceptionally good for Israel in terms of close cooperation at senior levels. Example: the recent air strikes in Lebanon were closely coordinated with the US (and if you noticed the US was very quiet throughout); there are frequent secret visits between top members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Bush is a mystery; those assigned to monitor him during his visit last year found that even after several days in the country, he seemed neither to know or care which country he was visiting.
Domestic: In the Likud, watch for Dan Meridor to rejoin the party at Sharon’s behest as long as Bibi Netanyahu gets indicted and convicted. Meridor & Sharon have been talking. If Bibi gets acquitted or not indicted, he will make a play at the party and he still controls the party’s central committee. Sharon is holding evidence that would implicate Bibi if he becomes a threat because Sharon doesn’t want him back. Ehud Olmert, mayor of Jerusalem, is seen as too corrupt and right-wing to have any cross-party appeal beyond the extreme Right in Israel. Barak’s indictment on the political financing affair will cost him more money from Shas (Sefardi religious party) but Shas is already taking tribute at every juncture for its swing votes. Yossi Sarid, the leftist education minister at odds with Shas, may be a sacrificial lamb within a year or two. Elyakim Rubinstein, the one who is throwing the book at Barak, is covering his butt by doing so while he prepares to indict Bibi – remember he was a Likud appointee. Weizman will be out in within a year; Peres most likely to take over but perhaps instead a retired jurist or lawyer for increased posterity the position needs; David Levy not seen as President. The position will not be eliminated because Israel needs someone to send to funerals. Problem with Peres is if it’s leaked that he and his son pocketed over a million dollars from bilking the state through a shipping company years ago in a scam involving the Histadrut (labor federation). Whether Peres took the money for himself or the Histadrut is not known to me but I’m told it went through his pockets.
US Defense Treaties: The Israelis want the US defense treaty even though the Israelis demand the right to use their forces unilaterally without notice and to retain ultimate control over their nuclear weapons. They want the US umbrella; their second-strike nuclear submarine option is not yet operational and may or may not be realistic. The anti-ballistic missile defense is a joke. They want access to US intelligence and fighter-bombers in the region to make the cost of a first strike too high. The Israelis fear the Syrian chemical and biological weapons. Why won’t the Arabs object? The Syrians will also get a US/Syrian defense treaty; there will be warning stations on the Hermon in the Golan with Israelis; the Syrians will get a station on Mt. Merom near Safed with Syrians.
Threats with a capital T: There is agreement that NBC (nuclear, biological and chemical) threat from rogues such as bin Ladens is more of a threat than state to state threat. There is hope that intelligence will foil most attacks. Ultimately, you make peace state to state because you need cooperation against the rogues who can really destroy everyone, not just one party to the conflict. The Israelis are better prepared today than the US to deal with biological terror (with the exception of New York City) and its sources and methods for dealing with civil homefront command are in demand by the US military (and I had thought the Israelis were overrated on this). This is from a senior US military source by the way who liaisons with Israel on this.
Things to keep in mind: Goal #1 is that Bashar gets a smooth transition. That’s all Farouk a-Shara’s mission is today. Getting the Golan is not his #1 Goal. His handshake will not be the first; it will come from Hafez or Bashar Assad (after he takes over). Barak must take care of his own public opinion and the Syrians also have to take care of their own public opinion (which does count). The photos taken of the Israelis and Syrians eating together in West Virginia mean more to the Arabs than the handshake anyway. Abdullah of Jordan still hasn’t completely gotten his act together and everyone wants to bolster him; expect leaks about the wonderful Jordanian agencies and close cooperation with the US, even at Israel’s expense. A Golan referendum in Israel today would lose but Barak feels he can sell the deal when it ultimately is made and announced. The sense is that he knows in his own mind exactly what he wants to do and will accomplish it. There is talk about who makes the first deal and which track to follow: this is a bit of a red herring. The Arab who makes the first deal probably gets the best deal so the best possible outcome is that both deals will probably be announced as a package at about the same time. I am being told it is an incorrect estimate to think that Arafat must appear strong and not appear to make concessions or else fall to Hamas; the Israelis feel that Arafat has enough roughriders to put down the Hamas in a day if they ever challenge his authority. Arafat wants a state and will take what he can get.
Israel has a big long term problem on its hands; the threat of civil violence between secular and religious after the peace process is finished. Usually this is played up in the press and downplayed in person when I visit. I am being told not to underestimate the tensions that exist and that the 60 Minutes piece this week which highlighted the tension is not an exaggeration. The US feels that Arafat or his successor can sit pretty over the coming years and watch the Israelis destroy themselves.
Arafat and Assad are both in poor health and time runs against them. Clinton is the sugar daddy but time runs here too. These are ultimately the constants which nothing can change. By the way, Bashar is the one who leaked his father’s health records to the Israelis via Chirac when he visited Paris last August to let the Israelis know it was time to get moving.
Other Comments:
Iraq Sanctions: Notice the Washington Post report yesterday 21 February about US companies bidding on spare parts contracts for Iraq reconstruction and defense. An Internet site listing all the bids was taken down after the Washington Post leaked its contents. Result: The hypocrisy of the Iraq policy is not only that the US is on the sidelines but that the US is actually selling stuff to Iraq in violation of its own policy. Another reason that the whole Iraq thing is a game without a purpose. The real point: We want Saddam in power because we fear that a modernized Iran will confederate with the Shiites of Iraq and become too big a threat for the Gulf allies to stomach. That’s what the CIA analysts believe anyway.
Iran Elections Comment: Notice that Rafsanjani did very poorly and that even in the conservative rural areas, the reform candidates did well. As I predicted, the clerics got their butts kicked and Khatami has been given a real mandate in these elections. This was a humiliation of the ruling party. People will expect to see some changes and there will be violence come Spring if they are disappointed.
McCain: OK, he won Michigan but he’s winning with Democrats and Independents. The Republicans aren’t voting for him and this will hurt him majorly in the primaries where only the votes of Republicans count for delegates. It is also just not conceivable that a guy can represent the Republicans if people in his own party won’t vote for him. This is an unusual situation but it will play itself out over the next few weeks. Meanwhile, Gore rejoices.
