I made some inquiries about this 100 meter business. here’s the exact story: Israel doesn’t need it for strategic reasons. However, I am told there is no way at all that Barak can pass a referendum or get wide support within a government for a deal that puts Syria on the Lake. maybe later after normalization and water issues and yes it’s true that Syria held part of the lake before 1967. but 1923 borders give it to israel and before 67, the syrians did many hostile things using the water and the israelis remember them. It’s a matter of principle and emotion and I am assured this is not one of those cases where the Israelis stand firm saying It’s Vital and then the next day concede the point. Israel offered assad two choices: trading land (ie: giving him the Hamat Gader farm) or a leaseback deal — my guys insist that up to 24 hours before the Assad-Clinton meeting, there was every indication that the Syrian advance team expected an agreement. Assad came in and said No.
Several points: 1. When Assad met with Clinton, he showed his cap to Clinton and said to him “This is a gift from the Syrian people” without taking it off and/or giving it to him. The Israelis see this as the Arabic equivalent of giving someone the finger and for them that’s all they need to know about Assad for the moment. Public opinion in Israel has shifted dramatically since the Geneva meeting and is now against any agreement with Syria unless Syria accepts one of the earlier offers (unless it already has and hasn’t announced it) and those had better come within the next 2 weeks or else the apparatus will assume the track is dead. Barak is under much less domestic pressure because there was an impression that the Syrian talks were moving too quickly and everyone is enjoying the fact that this time around it was Assad’s fault that the talks broke down. The Lebanon pullout is a problem because half the generals are resisting but it will go through. If the Syrian track is deemed dead, expect the following to happen:
Weizman resigns as president, Likud joins the government, Shas is out (since there will be no referendum nobody needs Shas’s votes and the two secularist parties can finally get the religionists away from the public treasury) and Sharon becomes foreign minister. Barak and Sharon see eye to eye on the Palestinian and Lebanon issues at this point. Because this is in Assad’s court and I don’t know what he has agreed to or might agree to, I can tell you that the next 2 weeks to me is a mystery.
