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China Notes — Discussions with Chen 12 April 99 in Miami

I sat with a good friend from Shanghai who has good insights into China and the world. These are his opinions as to what to expect. I would tend to think with 80% probability that these opinions represent a fair cross-section of the elite of the PRC. … Continue Reading →

Israel Election Update — 22 March 1999

OK, I’m finally ready to issue forecasts with 60 days to go. This is tough; I have changed my stands quite a few times this month in my own private drafts but this is my best attempt to rise above the shifting sands of this election campaign that has yet to truly take shape.… Continue Reading →

Elections in Israel and the Jordanian Succession — 27 January 1999 Also: Discussion of the BBC’s history of the Middle East documentary

I am more optimistic in the past 24 hours than i have been for several years. several important things have happened that have been unexpected and that, all things being equal, definitively affect the calculus of voting patterns in israel and the risk analysis of jordan in positive ways.… Continue Reading →

Israeli Elections To Come — 24 December 1998

Heady from being on the verge of winning my $500 bet that Bibi wouldn’t last his term, I am yet filled with trepidation in trying to comment on this subject. 

Coming up is a very chaotic and hostile situation which will last probably through April (or whenever the election date is set next week) and it is a given that a run-off second round will take place to elect a prime minister.… Continue Reading →

Iraq Bombings, Impeachment Vote and Long Term Prediction on American Political Theater 18 December 1998

The Iraq bombings won’t accomplish much and I expect Saddam will just sit this out for 3 days and wait for it to pass. This is the US at its worst — lobbing over a couple hundred cruise missiles without putting any actual soldiers into the field.… Continue Reading →

On Impeachment…11 December 1998

The following is said having reviewed my earlier writings on this subject in which I said on 15 September that Clinton should resign and november 11 that the scandal would go away. amazing how it has been revived mainly by political hacks on a house committee who won’t let it die even after the republican leader gingrich got tossed.… Continue Reading →

Ivan’s Global Thoughts….11 november 1998 Clinton Outlook, Turkish Pipeline, Middle East

so you’re wondering what’s going on over here, right? clinton is up; gingrich is out and the markets are exuberant again. a bit of a surprise to us too.

i was in jerusalem and it was the rosh hashana holiday when cnn was showing the video tapes of clinton’s grand jury appearance.… Continue Reading →

Clinton Outlook, Turkish Pipeline & Middle East October 1998

so you’re wondering what’s going on over here, right? clinton is up; gingrich is out and the markets are exuberant again. a bit of a surprise to us too.

i was in jerusalem and it was the rosh hashana holiday when cnn was showing the video tapes of clinton’s grand jury appearance.… Continue Reading →

An Essay Reflecting on The Longer Term American Foreign Policy Re-Think 4 September 1998

Are we better off now than we were 7 years ago? No more USSR? What about the idea of helping our enemy’s enemy? Have we been burned by doing so? Has the U.S. benefitted or injured itself and the world at large by both acting and failing to act with regard to changes in the world such as the fall of communism and now the chaos in Russia?… Continue Reading →

A Twenty-Something View of the Middle East: Existential Threats to Nations Come Not From Legendary Bogeymen December 1995

SUMMARY: Elite Generation X Arabs and Jews are surprisingly forward-thinking, non-ideological and willing to challenge old assumptions. Israelis and Arabs suffer from misconceptions about each other due to the lack of positive encounters, differing backgrounds and the baggage of occupation and thus fail to recognize shared traumas and areas of common ground.… Continue Reading →

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